Yesterday,
US Defense Secretary Ash Carter stated that the coalition forces’ next target
will be Raqqa, the de facto capital of ISIS. He further noted that they can
able to recapture Raqqa within few weeks. Meanwhile, Mosul under severe attacks
by coalition forces led by USA together with Peshmerga and Iraqi security
forces. By making this statement, the Defense Secretary indicates that the
heavy assault on Mosul is successful.
A
few days ago, more than 100 people were killed by ISIS including women, children
and former police officers in Mosul. As a warning to the residents of Mosul,
ISIS has dumped bodies in the river near to a village of Safina.
Last
week, it was reported that in retaliation ISIS killed more 280 men and
children. Those who were executed are used as human shields. ISIS also
now targeting journalists and cameramen who are covering the offensive attacks
in Mosul. ISIS also executed its own militants who are abandoning and
absconding from battle fields.
According
to an Iraqi online portal i.e. iraqinews.com, ISIS
also attacks Kirkuk and it is reported that more than 40 people were
executed. Dibis a town under the control of Kurdish in Iraq was attacked
by three ISIS suicide bombers and it was reported several security personnel
and civilians were killed. Currently, the desperation measures taken by ISIS
are to use IED explosives, toxic gas suicide bombers, and human shields
together with killing of journalists shows that they are merciless.
Yesterday
more than 30 civilians were killed by ISIS in central-western province of Ghor,
Afghanistan. Last Monday, a police training academy in Quetta, Pakistan was
under attack by ISIS killing more than 60 people and injured more than 100
people. Meanwhile, in Tangerang, on the suburbs of Jakarta, a suspected ISIS
terrorist attacks three policemen and threw a pipe bomb which fails to
detonate. The expansion of ISIS attacks in other countries is proven that ISIS
is evolving.
As
reported in the New York Times recently, since 2014, ISIS is already pre
planned for counter the present situation that its face now in Iraq and Syria.
By creating and expanding its special forces within like EMNI, ISIS is
exporting terrorism beyond its territory. That’s means, the epicenter of
terrorism is no longer in Iraq or Syria.
With
current situation in Iraq and Syria where ISIS under austere attacks by
coalition forces, the relevancy and adequacy for its causes through its
ideologies are important to hold the members within. Therefore ISIS since 2015
has launched attacks globally especially in Europe. Even though, Europe is
still their focal target but Africa, Oceania and Asia become more imperative
now for its causes.
Within
Asia, Southeast Asia is more significant because ISIS already established with
existing terrorist groups which at once aligned with Al Qaeda like Jemmah
Islamiyah and Abu Sayyaf. The influx of Foreign Terrorist Fighters (FTFs)
from Iraq and Syria to this region is foreseeable. Last month, Mohamas Amin, a
suspected terrorist who is a bomb expert was arrested by Philippines
authorities in Quezon City.
Meanwhile,
Ahmad Tarmizi Muhamad Sayoti was arrested in Basilan while trying to elude to
Malaysia with IED by Philippines security forces. Even though the authorities able to
capture these suspected Malaysian terrorists but it is indicates that ISIS through its affiliates in South East Asia are planning to
launch series of attacks throughout this region. This is inevitable.
Therefore, in my opinion, the Movida and Jakarta attacks are
done by semi seasoned or immature supporters/sympathizers/terrorists of ISIS.
The forthcoming attacks if ever going to happen in this region will be deadly
and going to execute by veteran ISIS FTFs who are returning to their home
country. Therefore it is a challenging period ahead for the security and
intelligence forces within this region to counter and stop ISIS to launch any
lethal attacks in this region.
The influx of these FTFs to this region can be done by air, sea
and land. With the substantial money that ISIS has collected through selling of
oil and by looting the local banks within its controlled territories, money is
always a non-issue. For example, ISIS is looted an estimated $500 million in
cash and gold from the Central Bank of Mosul. The funds are used for military and terror operations
domestically and globally.
Recently a few people who works for Diwan al-Zakat (Zakat
Bureau) of the ISIS in Hawija of Kirkuk, vanished with 600 million dinars. With
this kind of money ISIS can engage or hire the organized crime especially human
smugglers to smuggle the FTFs in this region. The Paris and Brussels attackers
are posed as refugees and with help of people smugglers able to go their target
places and successfully launched their attacks. This pattern can be repeated
easily in South East Asia because of its porous borders. In addition, the
existing people smugglers who have used this region to traffic in and out
people without any big obstacles gives an easy route for the FTFs to slip in
and launch the attacks in any part of this region.
For ISIS, Malaysia is one of its prime target. Even though Islam
is the official religion of Malaysia and the government have adapted more
Islamic values within its administration but in the view of ISIS, Malaysia is
not within the definition of its version of Islamic State. Further, the
current political landscape in Malaysia with the rise of extremism is a
conducive climate for the FTFs to justify their terrorist attacks. More than
two weeks ago, 16 suspected terrorists including a school counsellor were
arrested by PDRM nationwide. Even though security forces in Malaysia
successfully dismantled terrorist cells, sympathizers and supports of ISIS but
the threat is still exist. With the influx of harden/seasoned/veteran FTFs from
battle fronts in Syria and Iraq, the upcoming attacks in this region including
Malaysia will be noxious.
Therefore the intelligence and security forces in this region
need to exchange their intelligence on the returning of FTFs to deter further
terrorist attacks. The Paris and Brussels terrorist attacks are the proof of
failure of these agencies to avert the attacks.
As stated in the 9/11 Commission Report, the failures of
cooperation between security agencies within USA is one the main reason why
they are unable detect and prevent the attacks in USA soil. It is important
that the relevant intelligence agencies and security forces within this region
to have a full cooperation to daunt the ISIS attacks to be happened again.
In addition, Malaysia has a porous border and therefore it is
very difficult to be monitored by the relevant border agencies. The increase
human smugglers and traffickers using Malaysia as a transit point is another
tormenting factor that the likelihood of terrorist attacks are imminent.
According to the Trafficking in Persons report in 2015 which is published
by US Department of State, Malaysia is at the Tier
2. The nations within this tier are do not fully meet the minimum standard in
eliminating human trafficking. To minimize and eliminate the threats impose by
people smugglers and traffickers, the relevant border agencies in Malaysia can
engage other agencies like RELA, the veterans for PDRM and MAF (Malaysian Armed
Forces) to monitor and tighten up the Malaysian borders.
Apart from that the use of the foreign intelligence satellites
to monitor the borders within region and using latest equipment with the
cooperation of Navies will help the agencies to tackle the threats inflict by
the FTFs effectively. By using the disgruntled former terrorists who are
disillusioned with the ideology of ISIS and make the members of public who have
the high patriotism to serve the nation as the informers to provide crucial
information to the relevant agencies to detain the supporters/
sympathizers/terrorists of ISIS.
In addition, the formation of National Special Operations
Force (NSOF) comprises with the MAF, the PDRM and the Malaysian Maritime
Enforcement Agency (MEA) as a single special operation force to counter
terrorist attacks in Malaysia is a way forward. This unit needs to equip with
the advance weaponry and technology to be more superior than ISIS and other
terrorist group. Meanwhile they need to be well versed with social media to
counter ISIS's propaganda.
Further, the members of this unit need to be chosen from various
aspects of society with specific requirements, so that they can able to counter
any kind threats from ISIS. Ultimately the members should not come from
one particular race or religion to avoid any bias or tendency/support for ISIS.
The unit must always maintain neutrality and the primary purpose of this unit
to protect the nation at all cost. Another most important factor for the said
unit is to conceal the members identity. This is for their own and families
safety. Apart from that this unit's members remunerations package need to be
different from others by considering the high risk taken by them.
In a nutshell, the attacks on Mosul and Raqqa (forthcoming) by
coalition forces has profound domino effect in this region especially on
Malaysia. Many FTFs from Malaysia will eventually return and most likely
involve either with the funding, planning or executing terrorist attacks and I
believe the intelligence and security agencies mainly E8 and NSOF are well
prepared to face the offensive of ISIS.
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