Last Monday in Manchester, a lone suicide bomber, Salman Ramadan Abedi killed 22 people including children and injured more than 59 others. The British-born terrorist of Libyan parents recently returned from Libya. The countries like Libya, Somalia, Syria and Iraq are considered as incubators or hot spots for terrorist recruitment. The timing and target of place where this terrorist attack happened in very much similar to Paris attacks last year.
Interestingly he does not raised any alarm within the radar of the intelligence and security forces in United Kingdom. Further his profile does fit for the current characteristic of terrorists globally. He is young, son of the immigrants parents, drop out from his studies, involved with petty crimes and associated with extremist groups. Further he is from Manchester and his knowledge on the target area is vital for success of this attack. ISIS has praised him as the solider of the caliphate after the attack. This is a most recent deadliest attack in UK’s soil after the London bombings in 2005.
The UK security forces have arrested more than 10 people to determine whether Salman belongs any terrorist network and got any help within to execute the bomb. More interestingly at this age for Salman to produce or assemble such a bomb is very unlikely. Therefore there must be some 'experts' from abroad or locally to help/assist him to detonate this bomb in Manchester. This is the most difficult security challenge for the intelligence agencies in UK.
Two months ago, in London a terrorist attack was executed by a lone wolf. Five people were killed including a police officer, and injured more than 45 others. Even though ISIS has claimed its responsibility and hailed the terrorist as it’s solider but the UK authorities still investigating to determine whether he was self-radicalized or got any assistance from inside or outside of UK. He is a middle aged man with kids who has involved with crime previously. By using a hired SUV and a knife he is able to accomplish this lethal terrorist attack and it’s captured the world attention.
The UK intelligence and security forces are flabbergasted because it’s took them in surprise. The paradigm of current terrorist patterns are changing drastically. There are no longer required a group of people with weapons or bombs to unveiling a terrorist attack. Nowadays, such an attack can be launched at anytime and anywhere with minimum financial assistance and it’s can be devastating effect to the security and peace of a nation.
This mode is so decisive to ensure the existence or relevancy of terrorist groups especially ISIS. This because in Iraq and Syria, ISIS is under severe attacks by coalition forces and one of the most precise city, Mosul where the Caliphate was declared in 2014, almost recaptured by this forces.
A year ago, ISIS had launched a well-synchronize attacks in Paris where 130 civilians were killed. France is still traumatized with such atrocities. Since then ISIS or ISIS’s inspired attacks happened around the world with shattering the life of innocent civilians.
With current situation in Iraq and Syria where ISIS is under austere attacks by coalition forces, they need to stay relevant with their supporters and sympathizers by launching attacks throughout the world. This is to convince them ISIS’s preeminence. By constantly acting in accordance with its ideologies, ISIS wants to hold the members within firmly. The repercussion is, ISIS since 2015 has launched attacks globally especially in Europe. Even though, Europe is still their focal target but Africa, Oceania and Asia become more imperative now for its causes. In South East Asia utterly Malaysia has a favorable environment (political, social and economic factors) for ISIS to launch attacks with imminent. The scale of the future attacks will be lethal than the Movida attack.
With series of bay’at (pledge of allegiance) to the Caliph of IS by the existing terrorist groups in this region like Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) and Mujahidin Indonesia Timur (the Mujahidin of Eastern Indonesia) together with Gagak Hitam cell in Malaysia led by Muhammad Wanndy Mohamad Jedi who was killed last month by a drone attack in Raqqa, Syria.
Even though he died his influence in this region especially cannot be underestimated by the intelligence and security forces in this region especially Malaysia. This because it’s can create a domino effect as the possible retaliations which can be occurred around this region.
A few days ago in Jakarta two suspected suicide bombers killed three policemen and injured more than 10 people. Further in Bangkok, a military hospital was bombed and 21 people were injured. In Philippines, militants inspired by ISIS taken over the city of Marawi by killing a police chief and seizing a Christian priest and his worshipers in Church. According to Philippines authorities more than 31 people were killed. The Philippines military have confirmed the involvement of Foreign Terrorist Fighters (FTFs) including two Malaysians who were killed together with local militants confirmed that the domino effect is became real in this region. This can outflow to other countries in this region especially Malaysia where Sabah will be the obvious target for these FTFs in near future. This because South East Asia has porous border. For example, the tri-border waters of Sulu Sea between Malaysia, Philippines and Indonesia. A few months ago, Mohamas Amin, a suspected terrorist who is a bomb expert was arrested by Philippines authorities in Quezon City. How possible for him to travel from Malaysia to Philippines without detection?
Therefore Malaysia is on high alert and the security agencies well prepared but possible terrorist attacks with bombing or lone wolf type of attacks are highly conceivable. Although Malaysia security forces have captured the suspected terrorists of ISIS but in my opinion, the threat pose by the harden FTFs will be more lethal compare to these ‘inexperienced’ terrorists. The influx of veteran FTFs from battle fronts in Syria and Iraq to this region including Malaysia will be noxious because they are good in funding, planning or executing terrorist attacks. Further self-radicalized terrorists especially young people from broken families and young offenders can be another possible potential terrorists who will be threat to our national security.
The sleeper cells who are not within the radar of intelligence agencies in this region especially in Malaysia is another huge concern. Likewise in Manchester if this type of attacks launch in Malaysia than the impact will be intensely devastating. In a nutshell, the attacks on Mosul and Raqqa by coalition forces has profound domino effect in this region. Therefore the security and intelligence agencies with in this region including Malaysia at all costs need to detect and dismantle attacks like in Paris, Brussels, London, Jakarta and Manchester because the imminent terrorist attacks will be devastating.
Kuala Lumpur.
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