By Alexis Knutsen
The United States began withdrawing its
remaining personnel from Yemen Saturday, citing deteriorating security
conditions. About 100 American troops, including the special operations
forces assisting the Yemeni military in the fight against al Qaeda in the
Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), were evacuated. The move diminishes America’s
intelligence footprint in Yemen and abandons the country to AQAP, the Iranian-backed
al Houthis, and, now, the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS). What does
the Obama administration intend to do about the threat from Yemen? So far, not
much.
Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Yemen,
AQAP, is nowhere close to being defeated, and is, in fact, benefiting
from Yemen’s chaos. Yemen has slowly collapsed into two rival
governments – one in northern Yemen controlled by the Zaydi Shia rebel group
known as the al Houthis, and the other in southern Yemen under former President
Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, whom the US still recognizes as Yemen’s president. As
both the Hadi and al Houthi governments are drawn further into armed conflict,
both sides will likely be less able to commit forces to fighting AQAP.
AQAP, furthermore, has also been able to embed its fighters within
local populations opposed to the al Houthis, giving AQAP more operating room
throughout the country.
ISIS is also opening a new Yemen
front and is trying to stoke sectarian conflict. On March 20, ISIS
supporters bombed two mosques in Sana’a frequented by al Houthis and
attempted to bomb a mosque in the al Houthi stronghold of Sa’ada in north
Yemen. The attack killed upwards of 140 and has already elicited a strong
reaction from the al Houthis, who were the primary target. ISIS used a
similar strategy of targeting Shia in 2006 to bring Iraq to full-scale
sectarian conflict. While sectarianism is not traditionally strong in Yemen,
Yemen is not immune to it either. Even a few attacks like this can fuel a
sectarian conflict, potentially benefiting both ISIS and even AQAP.
So what’s the US to do? The
withdrawal of our counter-terrorism forces severely limits what were already
limited options. To start, the US and its Gulf partners should continue to make
any efforts they can to get Hadi and the al Houthis to a negotiating table.
We also need to answer what the state of the intelligence on Yemen is now and
who we think our counter-terrorism partners should be.
A few things are certain – the
Yemen conflict is going to get worse, AQAP and ISIS are going to benefit, and
the US is going to be less safe because of it. Doing nothing is not an option.
Source: https://www.aei.org/
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