A year ago, ISIS had launched a
well-synchronize attacks in Paris where 130 civilians were killed. France is
still traumatized with such atrocities. Since then ISIS or ISIS’s inspired
attacks happened around the world with shattering the life of innocent
civilians.
Yesterday in Khuzdar, Pakistan
more than 50 people were killed and hundreds more were injured when a suicide
bomber detonated bomb in a crowed Sufi shrine. Meanwhile, Mosul under severe
attacks by coalition forces led by USA together with Peshmerga and Iraqi
security forces. In Raqqa, ISIS is under siege by US led forces including the
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Arab force.
In retaliation, more than 100
people were killed by ISIS including women, children and former police officers
in Mosul. As a warning to the residents of Mosul, ISIS has dumped bodies in the
river near to a village of Safina. Those who were executed are used as human
shields. ISIS also now targeting
journalists and cameramen who are covering the offensive attacks in Mosul. ISIS
also executed its own militants who are abandoning and absconding from battle
fields. Currently, the desperation measures taken by ISIS are to use IED
explosives, toxic gas suicide bombers, and human shields together with killing
of journalists shows that they are merciless.
As reported in the New York Times
recently, since 2014, ISIS is already pre planned for counter the present
situation that its face now in Iraq and Syria. By creating and expanding its
special forces within like EMNI, ISIS is exporting terrorism beyond its
territory. That’s means, the epicenter of terrorism is no longer in Iraq or
Syria.
With current situation in Iraq
and Syria where ISIS is under austere attacks by coalition forces, they need to
stay relevant with their supporters and sympathizers by launching attacks
throughout the world. This is to convince them ISIS’s preeminence. By
constantly acting in accordance with its ideologies, ISIS wants to hold the
members within firmly. The repercussion is, ISIS since 2015 has launched
attacks globally especially in Europe. Even though, Europe is still their focal
target but Africa, Oceania and Asia become more imperative now for its causes. In
South East Asia utterly Malaysia has a favorable environment (political, social
and economic factors) for ISIS to launch attacks with imminent. The scale of
the future attacks will be lethal than the Movida attack.
With series of bay’at (pledge of
allegiance) to the Caliph of IS by the existing terrorist groups in this region
like Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) and Mujahidin Indonesia Timur (the Mujahidin of
Eastern Indonesia) together with Gagak Hitam cell in Malaysia led by Muhammad
Wanndy Mohamad Jedi who in Syria now capable to inflict a huge security threat
for this region.
The influx of Foreign Terrorist
Fighters (FTFs) from Iraq and Syria to this region is foreseeable because within
ISIS, there is a unit which is known as Khatibah Nusantara. This unit is comprises
of FTFs from this region. Apart from
that the publication of a Malay newspaper of ISIS which is known as al-Fatihin (means
the Conquerors in Arabic) mainly written in the Indonesian language by
targeting Malay speaking people in this region.
Even though E8 of PDRM has
detained more than 200 supporters/sympathizers/terrorists and some of them are
prosecuted successfully in the courts but it is reported that an estimated 100
Malaysians are still fighting in Iraq and Syria. There is a high possibility that
some of these seasoned terrorists are to be returned home. They can lead and
inspire others to launch terrorist attacks in Malaysia. To achieve that they
need to elude themselves from the authorities. The prospect of them to use
human smugglers and obtain the service of organized crime to give safe passage
within this region will create security challenges for the security and intelligence
agencies.
Likewise, the Paris and Brussels
attackers are posed as refugees. With help of people smugglers, they are able
to travel to their target places and successfully launched their attacks. This
pattern can be replicated easily in South East Asia because of its porous
borders, for example, the tri-border waters of Sulu Sea, water off Sabah and
Sulawesi Sea. Recently, Mohamas Amin, a suspected terrorist who is a bomb
expert was arrested by Philippines authorities in Quezon City. How possible for
him to travel from Malaysia to Philippines without detection?
Even though Malaysia security
forces have captured the suspected terrorists of ISIS but in my opinion, the
threat pose by the harden FTFs will be more lethal compare to these ‘inexperienced’
terrorists. The influx of veteran FTFs from battle fronts in Syria and Iraq to
this region including Malaysia will be noxious because they are good in
funding, planning or executing terrorist attacks.
In a nutshell, the attacks on
Mosul and Raqqa by coalition forces has profound domino effect in this region. The
Pandora box of ISIS for this region is already opened. Therefore the security
and intelligence agencies with in this region including Malaysia at all costs
need to detect and dismantle attacks like in Paris and Brussels because the
imminent terrorist attacks will be devastating.
Kuala Lumpur.
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