Bilateralism
Whether or not the Asia-Pacific
becomes a zone of cooperation depends on the new strategic system that eventually
replaces the current arrangement. Some commentators predicted that as a
consequence of the end of the Cold War, multilateral arrangements would, before
long, replace traditional bilateral approaches to security.
The US, it was thought, would
lose interest in providing security for its traditional allies, and Asian
states would conclude that bilateral alliances no longer met their interests
for they failed to allow for pragmatic approaches for dealing with new security
concerns.37
This has not been the
case.
Instead, the Clinton administration
has moved to strengthen its key bilateral security arrangements, while
acknowledging that multilateral security dialogue also plays an important role.
The efficacy of a multilateral approach to security issues is dependent on
solid bilateral foundations.
Even if the regional security
order in the twenty-first century becomes less reliant on bilateral military
alliances than it has been in the past fifty-three years, the US-Japan security
partnership will continue to provide the fundamental basis for strategic
stability in the Asia-Pacific.
With the end of the Cold War, the
original rationale for the security arrangement between Washington and Tokyo
disappeared. But, as is well-known, new risks and uncertainties have emerged to
replace the Soviet threat, providing both the
US and Japan with plenty of good strategic reasons for maintaining the alliance.
Given the potential for instability in East Asia, the US and Japan have no
choice but to strengthen both military cooperation and policy consultations.
Close security ties between the US and Japan are crucial to regional stability,
especially as a deterrent to aggressive moves by North Korea or China.
Policymakers and analysts must
continue to examine the ways in which the US-Japan alliance can be revitalized
and redefined, strategically and economically, so that the region can continue
to gain maximum benefit. No nation, not even the world’s only superpower can go
it alone.
Multilateralism
The Asia-Pacific has in place
some useful tools for coordinating policies and airing regional concerns. Regional security apparatus, such
as the ARF, play an important role in heightening confidence and enhancing
transparency. The ARF, for example, allows Asia-Pacific countries, including
Japan and China, to discuss wide-ranging security issues within a structured
multilateral institution. But the ARF does have major limitations. Most
significantly, it lacks a direct mechanism for dealing with conflict prevention,
arms control and other key regional concerns. In the eyes of its detractors, “the ARF is that most
uplifting of optical illusions – an optimistic illusion.”The ARF’s inertia over the Taiwan
Strait crisis in 1996 provided its critics with further proof of its
limitations.
Second track or nonofficial
groups, such as the Council on Security and Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific (CSCAP),
also serve an important purpose. Among other things, they provide an
opportunity for analysts, academics and others to put forward their views and
countries’ perceptions, and explore common approaches to traditional and
nontraditional security concerns. But in terms of dealing with key regional issues,
this track two process has had even less success than official mechanisms like
the ARF. While there is a good deal happening at the track one and track two
levels, and the regional environment may over the long-term be shaped by
multilateral networks, Paul Dibb, Gerald Segal, Ralph Cossa and others have
warned that anything resembling an Asia-Pacific regional society to manage
tensions is a long way off. It is for all these reasons that multilateralism must not be seen as a substitute
for existing bilateral mechanisms that have served the region well, especially
the US-Japan security partnership. Rather, it can serve as a useful ancillary
mechanism.
Source: Dibb, “The
Emerging Strategic Architecture in the Asia-Pacific Region, Segal.
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