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As America pulls out of Yemen, ISIS and AQAP move in

By Alexis Knutsen

The United States began withdrawing its remaining personnel from Yemen Saturday, citing deteriorating security conditions. About 100 American troops, including the special operations forces assisting the Yemeni military in the fight against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), were evacuated. The move diminishes America’s intelligence footprint in Yemen and abandons the country to AQAP, the Iranian-backed al Houthis, and, now, the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS). What does the Obama administration intend to do about the threat from Yemen? So far, not much.

Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Yemen, AQAP, is nowhere close to being defeated, and is, in fact, benefiting from Yemen’s chaos. Yemen has slowly collapsed into two rival governments – one in northern Yemen controlled by the Zaydi Shia rebel group known as the al Houthis, and the other in southern Yemen under former President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, whom the US still recognizes as Yemen’s president. As both the Hadi and al Houthi governments are drawn further into armed conflict, both sides will likely be less able to commit forces to fighting AQAP.  AQAP, furthermore, has also been able to embed its fighters within local populations opposed to the al Houthis, giving AQAP more operating room throughout the country.

ISIS is also opening a new Yemen front and is trying to stoke sectarian conflict. On March 20, ISIS supporters bombed two mosques in Sana’a frequented by al Houthis and attempted to bomb a mosque in the al Houthi stronghold of Sa’ada in north Yemen. The attack killed upwards of 140 and has already elicited a strong reaction from the al Houthis, who were the primary target. ISIS used a similar strategy of targeting Shia in 2006 to bring Iraq to full-scale sectarian conflict. While sectarianism is not traditionally strong in Yemen, Yemen is not immune to it either. Even a few attacks like this can fuel a sectarian conflict, potentially benefiting both ISIS and even AQAP.

So what’s the US to do? The withdrawal of our counter-terrorism forces severely limits what were already limited options. To start, the US and its Gulf partners should continue to make any efforts they can to get Hadi and the al Houthis to a negotiating table. We also need to answer what the state of the intelligence on Yemen is now and who we think our counter-terrorism partners should be.

A few things are certain – the Yemen conflict is going to get worse, AQAP and ISIS are going to benefit, and the US is going to be less safe because of it. Doing nothing is not an option.

Source: https://www.aei.org/

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