The terrorist incident that occurred in Baisaran Valley, Jammu and Kashmir, on April 22, 2025, resulting in the deaths of 26 Indian tourists and injuries to over 20 others, has reverberated throughout South Asia and beyond.
This attack marks the most lethal
act of terrorism in India since the 2008 Mumbai attacks and poses a significant
risk of escalating the already delicate India-Pakistan relationship into open
conflict.
Unlike previous confrontations,
this situation carries heightened regional and global ramifications, especially
for the Indo-Pacific, a region now acknowledged as the strategic epicentre of
the 21st century.
Malaysia, positioned centrally
within this shifting geopolitical landscape, cannot afford to remain a passive
observer of this crisis. The widening divide between India and Pakistan
threatens to alter regional security dynamics, realign diplomatic partnerships,
and challenge the relevance of ASEAN.
As tensions rise between these
two nuclear-capable nations, the repercussions will inevitably extend
throughout the Indo-Pacific, increasing the stakes for countries like Malaysia
that are becoming more intertwined with the region's economic and security
frameworks.
A Conflict That Can No Longer
Be Contained
In contrast to previous localized
conflicts, the Kashmir crisis of 2025 has swiftly gained international
dimensions.
Following the attack, India has
halted the Indus Waters Treaty, expelled Pakistani diplomats, and increased
military presence along the Line of Control.
In retaliation, Pakistan has
closed its airspace to Indian aircraft and has threatened to terminate
bilateral agreements, including the Simla Agreement.
The rapid escalation of tensions
has raised alarms not only in South Asia but also in major global capitals such
as Washington, Beijing, and Moscow, as well as in key ASEAN nations.
In a time when global supply
chains and security issues are intricately linked, the potential for war
between India and Pakistan transcends regional boundaries.
Both nations play crucial roles
in trade routes, energy corridors, and emerging security partnerships that
extend from the Persian Gulf to the Pacific Ocean.
Consequently, a prolonged
conflict or, even more alarmingly, a limited nuclear confrontation could
disrupt the international security framework, destabilize global markets, and
undermine years of diplomatic efforts in the region.
The Indo-Pacific: A Fragile
Balancing Act
The Indo-Pacific is already a
region under strategic strain. The U.S.-China rivalry has led to a
proliferation of defence pacts and maritime alliances: the Quad (India, Japan,
Australia, and the U.S.), AUKUS, and ASEAN’s Indo-Pacific Outlook.
India is a cornerstone of many of
these frameworks, especially as Western nations seek to counterbalance China's
growing influence. Any military confrontation involving India would divert its
strategic focus inward and weaken the coherence of these multilateral
groupings.
For Malaysia, this poses multiple
dilemmas. As a founding member of ASEAN and a nation committed to a
"neutral and non-aligned" foreign policy, Malaysia depends on a
stable Indo-Pacific for its economic and security interests.
Over 80% of its trade flows
through the Strait of Malacca, a choke point that could be impacted by any
major conflict in the region. Malaysia is also actively engaged in maritime
security efforts in the South China Sea efforts that require regional cooperation,
not fragmentation.
If India is drawn into a
prolonged conflict with Pakistan, it may reduce its engagement with
Indo-Pacific initiatives, thereby weakening the region’s collective security
mechanisms.
China, conversely, could
capitalize on the vacuum to deepen its influence in South and Southeast Asia
tilting the power balance in ways that could be uncomfortable for middle powers
like Malaysia.
Malaysia’s Role in a New
Strategic Equation
Malaysia must acknowledge that
the ongoing India-Pakistan crisis serves as a critical evaluation of its
diplomatic flexibility and significance within the region.
Traditionally, Malaysia has aimed
to mediate and foster peace in international disputes, exemplified by its
facilitation of discussions between conflicting parties in the Philippines and
southern Thailand, as well as its advocacy for Palestine on a global platform.
At this juncture, Kuala Lumpur
must deliberate on how it can effectively contribute to the de-escalation of
tensions in South Asia while safeguarding its diplomatic relationships and
avoiding geopolitical repercussions.
In recent years, Malaysia's ties
with India have significantly strengthened, highlighted by the establishment of
the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2024 and a security dialogue in 2025
that emphasizes counterterrorism and cybersecurity.
Concurrently, Malaysia enjoys
amicable relations with Pakistan, often influenced by shared religious
affiliations and economic collaboration. Instead of aligning with one side,
Malaysia ought to utilize its diplomatic influence to foster a regional dialogue
within the framework of ASEAN.
Additionally, it can collaborate
with allied nations such as Indonesia, Singapore, and Japan to advocate for a
ceasefire and encourage the revival of bilateral discussions between India and
Pakistan.
Most crucially, Malaysia should
advocate for the revitalization of multilateral conflict-resolution frameworks,
including those facilitated by the United Nations and the Non-Aligned Movement,
both of which include India and Malaysia.
A Wake-Up Call for ASEAN and
the Global South
This crisis acts as a crucial
reminder for ASEAN, whose principle of non-interference frequently obstructs
prompt collective responses.
As the Indo-Pacific region
becomes more militarized and unpredictable, ASEAN must transition from a
passive consensus-builder to an active advocate for peace.
Malaysia, with its historical
role in diplomatic leadership, can facilitate this transformation. Furthermore,
the India-Pakistan conflict has the potential to involve external powers such
as the U.S., China, and Russia, each with vested interests in the area.
If not managed effectively, this
situation could escalate into a new form of Cold War-style proxy conflict,
jeopardizing smaller nations caught in the turmoil.
For the Global South, including
Malaysia, the implications are significant: it is essential to avoid binary
alliances and instead foster coalitions that emphasize regional autonomy,
conflict resolution, and multilateral governance.
The Kashmir attack of 2025
represents not only a devastating act of terrorism but also a pivotal moment in
strategic dynamics. In the context of the Indo-Pacific, it poses a risk to the
fragile diplomatic and security frameworks established over the years.
For Malaysia, this situation
offers both a challenge and a chance to emerge as a proponent of reason and
reconciliation amid increasing instability.
By advocating for peace,
maintaining neutrality, and strengthening regional collaboration, Malaysia can
play a crucial role in navigating this crisis, benefiting not only itself but
also a region whose future is precariously uncertain.
28.4.2025
Kuala Lumpur.
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