Introduction
Early of this month, Davao City
of Philippines was bombed by Abu Sayyaf. More than 10 people were killed and at
least 60 people were injured. Meanwhile, a few days ago, Abu Muhammad al-Adnani,
a senior ISIS was killed in Syria. He is the spokesperson of ISIS and widely
believed is the leader of EMNI.
A few weeks ago, two policemen
were attacked by two suspected militants who were killed in Balashikha, near
Moscow. Meantime four suspected militants were killed by Russian Special Forces
(Spetsnaz) in St. Petersburg and three of the militants are known terrorists
from the Kabardino-Balkharia region of the North Caucasus. The Spetsnaz found weapons
and explosive devices in their apartment.
Last month, Thailand was under
attack. Within 24 hours in five provinces, 11 bombs were detonated. At least
four people were killed and more than 36 people were injured. The Thai
authorities had said it’s unclear whether it is a local sabotage or global
terrorism. The attacks are well coordinated and mainly targeted tourists
hotspots which frequented by foreigners.
In Charleroi, Belgium two
policewomen were attacked with machete by a suspected ISIS
supporter/terrorist/sympathizer and was killed by police. In Canada, a known supporter
of ISIS, Aaron Driver@ Harun Abdurahman was shot dead by RCMP when he
discharged an explosive device inside the taxi and harming the taxi driver. The
RCMP believes he is in an advance stage to launch an attack using bomb in a
Canadian city.
Both men in Belgium and Canada
are to be considered as a lone wolf inspired by ISIS. At this point of the
time, it is unclear whether both men received instructions or orders from
ISIS’s handlers or radicalized by themselves using available materials posted
by ISIS on internet.
Early this month, the Indonesian
authority has foiled a terrorist attack by arresting 6 suspected terrorists in
Batam. The Indonesian police believed that this group is inspired and funded by
Bahrun Naim who is a well-known ISIS terrorist residing in Syria now. Their
target was Marina Bay in Singapore. If the attack is successful, then, it will
be one of the first transnational terrorist attack in this region which is
similar with Mumbai attack.
ISIS’s evolution
ISIS has evolved from Al-Qeada. ISIS
has started off a sprout of Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) by a Jordanian terrorist who
is known as Musab al-Zarqawi. After the US military departure and rising power
of Shiites in Iraq’s government where Sunnis were targeted and exempted from
power. This become motivating factor
which has allows AQI to recruit Sunnis. Some of them are former military
officers of Iraqi army. The AQI main purpose is to establish a Sunni Islamist
state in Iraq. In 2006, Zarqawi was killed and an Egyptian Abu Ayyub al-Masri
took over and renamed it as Islamic State in Iraq (ISI). Later, Abu Bakr
al-Baghdadi took over the leadership of ISI when al-Masri and Abu Omar
al-Baghdadi were killed in 2010.
In 2013, al-Baghdadi rebranded
the group as Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) after ISI forces extended
its power in Iraq and Syria. By 2014, Al-Qeada has severed its ties with ISIS
because of infighting between ISIS and Al-Nusra Front – Al-Qaeda affiliated
group from Syria which is disagreed to join with ISIS. It’s widely believed
that most of the leaders of ISIS where detained by USA at Camp Bucca in South
Iraq. In 2014, Al-Baghdadi has proclaimed the conception of a caliphate or
Islamic state after ISIS took over Mosul.
The External Structure of ISIS
Interestingly the attackers and
planners are not directly connected. The link person will be a new convert or clean
person who is not within the radar of intelligence and security forces but they
also will have no direct contact with the attackers as well. Normally the
attackers are controlled by handlers.
Even though in Paris attacks the
authority has identified Abdelhamid Abaaoud as a ringleader but I reasonably
believe that he is a handler rather than the link person. To eradicate violence
and terrorist attacks anywhere in the world the brain of the said attacks i.e.
the planners and link persons need to be eliminated. By detaining and killing
handlers and attackers, the potential terrorist attacks can be stopped. Therefore
the security and the intelligence forces/agencies must allocate sufficient time
and workforce to track down the planners and link persons to dismantle any
future wide-reaching terrorist attacks. Both of them are the root cause of any
terrorist attacks.
Further, the Movida attack in
Puchong, the E8 of PDRM probably has arrested handlers and attackers. They also
probably can identified the planners in the caliphate. In my opinion the most
important and dangerous people will be the link persons. These people are just
ordinary people who are not imposed any danger until an attack is actually
unfolded. Most likely they also have been asked not to expose themselves and
this actually increase the probability for future attacks in Malaysia.
Apart from that, EMNI also wanted
to have ex-criminals who can be intermediate to organized crime to smuggle in
terrorists from caliphate to intended countries in Europe. For Asia especially
Bangladesh, Malaysia and Indonesia, the unit wanted veteran militants who have
battlefields experience with Al Qaeda and its affiliates like Jemaah Islamiyah
(South East Asia), Abu Sayyaf (Philippines), Ansar al-Khliafah (India),
Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (Philippines) and Jundallah (Pakistan).
Future possibilities in Malaysia
Recently in Singapore eight (8)
suspected terrorists of Islamic State in Bangladesh (ISB) from Bangladesh were
detained and sentenced. Meanwhile, the Dhaka attack is conducted by Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen
Bangladesh (JMB) and two of the terrorists who was killed studied in Malaysia.
One of the largest immigrants in Malaysia is from Bangladesh. With current
development in Malaysia and Bangladesh, the suspected ISIS
supporter/terrorist/sympathizer can to be part of large community in Malaysia because
is much easier for them to blend with. This can pose serious threat for Malaysia’s
national security. Therefore the authority must create a network of informers
within this community. They also must educate their community leaders and
employers to recognize any signs of radicalism within that person and notify to
the relevant authority.
Even though al-Adnani was killed,
his ‘trainees’ are already around the globe. With the statement from ISIS for
retaliation, the increase of terrorist attacks around the world are vastly
conceivable. Increased number of terrorist who are under 20 years old involved
with attacks in Germany, France, Belgium and Malaysia are distressing. Therefore
any single lead information need to be investigated thoroughly by the security
and intelligence agencies in Malaysia. Additionally the family and friends of
the known supporter/terrorist/sympathizer need to be monitor all the times.
Further their ‘unknown’ friends who are in communication with them via social
media (not only Telegram, Facebook or WhatsApp) need to track down by using
latest technology. The terrorist a good with encryption. Therefore the agencies
must have a pool of expert to decipher the coded messages to identify the cell
members, location, motive, targets and so on.
According to Combating Terrorism
Centre in New York, the use of children who are known as the ‘Cubs of the
Caliphate’ by ISIS increased drastically past months. There is a video posted
by ISIS on child soldiers from Indonesia and Malaysia at a training camp in the
Al-Hasakah region of Syria. Apart from that, PDRM is also detained suspected
terrorists who are under 18 years old. A few weeks ago, in Iraq a child who is
12 years old was detained with a suicide bomb vest. In March this year, a young
suicide bomber who is 16 years old detonated his explosives and killed more
than 29 people and wounded more than 60 people in Iraq. This is another
possibility in Malaysia. Therefore the teachers, parents, neighbors and friends
need to be vigilant to notice any drastic changes within the persons that they
know before and they are oblige to report to the relevant authority to avert
any undesirable incidents in future.
ISIS has advance propaganda
tools. They have their own magazine (Dabiq) and news agency (Amaq). Recently
ISIS has published a Malays language newspaper i.e. Al-Fatihin. This newspaper is cater for South East Asia.
By creating Katibah Nusantara Lid Daulah Islamiyyah is known as Katibah
Nusantara, ISIS has identity the important of the region for future. To gain
popularity and support, ISIS going to escalate their attacks not only Malaysia
but throughout this region. The attempted attacks in Malaysia and successful
attacks in Philippines and Indonesia had indicated ISIS’s seriousness to pursue
for the creation of caliphate within this region. The collaboration between
intelligence and security agencies within this region is so vital to minimize
the impact or stop any attacks that going occur in future.
Conclusion
ISIS is always evolving. From
very structured organization or state, it’s now transformed itself as
unstructured organization by engaging guerilla warfare through small group of
people or lone wolves. This is unprecedented.
http://m.themalaymailonline.com/what-you-think/article/isis-and-future-possibilities-in-malaysia-r.-paneir-selvam
http://www.themalaysiantimes.com.my/category/opinion/
Source:
www.independent.co.uk
www.britishcouncil.org
www.nytimes.com
www.cnn.com
www.guardian.com
www.aina.org
www.battleofideas.org.uk
www.newsweek.com
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