SINCE beginning of the month,
Afghanistan is under siege. Since the US troops withdrew from the country,
which was celebrated by the Taliban and several leaders from the Organisation
of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) member countries, many leaders are now puzzled
with the ongoing assault on the minorities and sectarian violence taking place
there.
Despite the fact that the US
retreat was heavily criticised by the international community, there is no
doubt, a grand strategy behind it.
And the world will know what
that strategy is and why the pullback is so precipitous in the coming years.
The war on terror
The objective of the war on
terror is to apprehend and remove perpetrators, particularly the leaders of
terrorist organisations. The assassination of Osama Bin Laden in 2011 marked
the beginning of the US’ decision to withdraw from Afghanistan.
According to the Costs of War
project at Brown University, the US has spent US$8 tril on post-9/11 wars,
including in Afghanistan and Iraq, which have killed over 900,000 people.
More than US$2 tril has been
spent on the Afghan War, according to that report, which includes interest on
loans used to support the war as well as expenses such as veterans’ care.
Furthermore, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members such as the UK
and Germany spent more than US$45 bil on the war.
More than 3,500 coalition
members have perished since the battle against the Taliban began in 2001,
including more than 2,300 US soldiers and 450 UK troops. In warfare, a total of
20,660 US servicemen have been injured. Since 2009, almost 111,000 civilians
have been killed or injured, according to the United Nations Assistance Mission
in Afghanistan (UNAMA).
The cost of maintaining
momentum in the fight against Taliban, as well as the deaths of US and allied
forces, are cited as justifications for the withdrawal. However, it is unclear
whether there is a “hidden agenda” that surpasses the US’s obligations to
Afghanistan.
Russia and China
With China’s rise challenging
the US’ hegemony and Russia’s suspected greater participation in its internal
affairs, the US shifted its foreign policy to treat these countries as
adversaries.
At the height of the
Afghanistan conflict, high-ranking members of the US Government such as Vice
President Kamala Harris and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin visited South
East Asian countries such as Singapore and Vietnam, indicating that this
scenario is conceivable.
The presence of US and allied
military assets in the Indo-Pacific region has recently increased, as has Joe Biden’s
statement on Thursday, confirming that the US will come to Taiwan’s defense and
committed to defend the island China claims as its own.
While some scholars questioned
the US’ commitment, the increased presence of US and allied troops, as well as
China’s People Liberation Army (PLA) encroaching Taiwan air space recently
signal that something will happen and it will be inevitable.
Also, Biden stated that people
need not be apprehensive about the US military’s strength because China,
Russia, and the rest of the world recognise that the US has the world’s most
powerful military in history. He also stated that the US does not desire a
“cold war” with China and the latter must understand that the US would not back
down on Taiwan’s security and sovereignty.
Samuel Huntington’s clash of
civilisations theory is used to explain US foreign policy, in which the West,
inspired by the US, must prepare to confront its antagonists. They have
somewhat “eliminated or weakened” Islamic civilisation, and their attention has
switched to the Confucian civilisation, i.e. China.
As for China, it has aligned
with Pakistan and Iran, two of Afghanistan’s neighbours. The ongoing border
tensions between China and India allows the US to deepen its friendship with
India in order to counter China’s growing influence in South Asia.
Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to
the north, and Tajikistan and China to the northeast, are the other nations
that border Afghanistan. Unlike the former, the other are close allies of
Russia. Kazakhstan and Tajikistan are member the Collective Security Treaty
Organization (CSTO), an intergovernmental alliance created in 1992 led by
Russia.
CSTO is a military alliance
like NATO, according to carnegiemoscow.org, and Article 4 of the CSTO Charter
declares that any armed attack threatening the security, stability, territorial
integrity, or sovereignty of one of its members shall be considered an act of
aggression against all member nations.
The charter also states that
members prefer political means to fulfill the group’s objectives, despite the
fact that the CSTO still has a combined military force of more than 20,000
troops. The CSTO has never been called into action, but it does conduct
military training exercises on a regular basis.
The Brazil, Russia, India,
China, and South Africa grouping, or BRICS, and the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO) both have China and Russia as members. BRICS is an economic
partnership in which the Russian military and its Chinese counterparts also
undertake joint military drills on a regular basis. With such drills, China and
Russia can be considered allies.
Conclusion
By leaving Afghanistan, the US
inadvertently handed the problem over to its adversaries, Russia and China.
Meanwhile, Pakistan, a former close ally that is now a part of China’s grand
Belt and Road Initiative, will play a role in this equation.
While many saw the US’ grand
strategy in Afghanistan as a failure of its foreign policy, I believe they have
another major purpose in mind.
The impact of the tribal
system is reflected in the form of Afghanistan’s administration. The Loya
Jirga, for example, is Afghanistan’s most influential institution, consisting
of tribal elders who can influence the path of any administration in
Afghanistan. Because of its distinctiveness, the US has understood that it will
not be able to permanently resolve the Afghan crisis.
Furthermore, many nations are
directly and indirectly tackling their own security problems, such as China’s
with the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) terrorists and Pakistan with
ISIS-K and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan terrorists.
After 20 years in Afghanistan,
the US has realised that the war had to end. It has now not only shifted its
focus to the growing challenges from China and Russia, but it also has reason
to believe that terrorists and their ideology cannot be completely eradicated.
Moreover, the US no longer has
a good reason to stay in Afghanistan because they have recognised how difficult
it is to make meaningful structural reforms after spending trillions of dollars
and losing a large number of troops there.
By reaching out to the
Taliban; Russia, China, and Pakistan are indicating that they want to be a part
of the solution to Afghanistan’s crisis, which is unlikely to be resolved
unless Afghans stand up and demand change.
The US’ withdrawal from
Afghanistan serves a purpose, and as the world’s “grandmasters”, they are now
wondering how their adversaries will deal with the challenges thrown at their
way. – Oct 24, 2021.
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