Data on Mexican drug war violence

compiled by Wm. Robert Johnston

Beginning in December 2006, new Mexican President Felipe Calderon launched renewed federal efforts to combat drug-related crime in Mexico. Despite the campaign's significant successes, drug-related violence in Mexico has intensified since then. According to Mexican government statistics, fatalities from fighting between drug cartels, combat between cartels and Mexican authorities, and other drug-related violence has risen from 2,826 in 2007 to 15,273 in 2010. A total of 37,632 drug violence-related deaths are reported in Mexico from 2006 to mid-February 2011.

These profound levels of violence are not best described as a civil war or as terrorism, since on the broad scale they are neither--despite the fact that many attacks target Mexican authorities, that President Calderon has indicated that the cartels seek to subvert the government, and that a limited number of the attacks do meet accepted definitions of terrorism. The violence in general represents a serious degree of lawlessness in Mexico: most of the killings are of drug cartel criminals by drug cartel criminals.

The increased violence does represent a serious foreign policy concern for the United States. At least 259 U.S. citizens were murdered in Mexico from December 2006 to February 2011, including several targeted U.S. government employees. While this is still a minority of deaths of U.S. citizens in Mexico over this period (most deaths are due to motor vehicle and other accidents), the fraction of U.S. citizen deaths in Mexico that are due to violence (cartel-related or not) has risen from 23.7% in 2003-2005 to 32.6% in 2008-June 2010 (based on U.S. State Department figures, which may be incomplete). Valid concerns have been raised along the U.S. border that the violence could spill into the U.S. Of the 34,612 fatalities reported by the Mexican government from December 2006 to December 2010, 47.7% were in states bordering the U.S., and 28.1% were in municipalities within 50 km of the U.S. border.

The following statistics include data derived from a Mexican federal database on drug violence deaths from December 2006 to December 2011, reported by month and by state and municipality, and data derived from a U.S. State Department database on deaths of U.S. citizens abroad from October 2002 to June 2010. Additional figures and reports on particular incidents are compiled from news media reports. Some of the tables below have some focus on casualties to U.S. citizens, for the purpose of clarifying some of the issues for U.S. foreign policy. This should not be construed to diminish the fact that it is primarily the people of Mexico that are being victimized, including innocent Mexican civilians and the Mexican police and troops combating the cartels.

Source: [Upon request]