The Indo-Pacific region is entering a period of heightened geopolitical turbulence, marked by intensifying great power rivalry, militarization, and shifting strategic alliances.
At the heart of this evolving
security environment lies the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) a
regional bloc that, for decades, has anchored its relevance on neutrality,
consensus, and informal diplomacy.
However, as the competition
between the United States and China escalates, and as new powers like India
rise to assert their influence, ASEAN finds its core principles of sovereignty,
autonomy, and unity increasingly under pressure.
The region’s security
architecture is transforming rapidly, and ASEAN must respond decisively to
safeguard its members' sovereignty and strategic autonomy in the face of these
challenges.
The most pressing threat to
ASEAN’s sovereignty comes from the South China Sea, where Chinese assertiveness
has undermined the security and territorial integrity of several ASEAN member
states.
Since 2008, Beijing has
intensified its presence through the militarization of artificial islands,
coercive patrols, and the harassment of vessels from countries like the
Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia.
These activities blatantly
violate international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law
of the Sea (UNCLOS), and directly challenge the sovereignty of ASEAN coastal
states.
While China frames its actions as
protecting historic rights, its behaviour is increasingly interpreted as an
effort to unilaterally reshape the maritime order to its advantage.This growing
assertiveness from Beijing has catalysed a stronger security response from the
United States and its partners.
The emergence of groupings like
the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), comprising the US, Japan, India,
and Australia, reflects a coordinated attempt to counterbalance China’s growing
influence in the Indo-Pacific.
Through joint military exercises,
freedom of navigation operations, and defence cooperation initiatives, these
powers are increasing their presence in Southeast Asia turning the region into
a potential flashpoint for great power conflict.
While the strategic presence of
like-minded democracies is welcomed by some ASEAN states seeking to balance
China’s dominance, the bloc as a whole remains cautious. Most members fear
being forced into a binary choice between Washington and Beijing, which would
erode their diplomatic independence and trigger retaliatory responses.
The rise of India as a major
strategic actor adds another dimension to this complex environment. India’s
growing defence and maritime capabilities, combined with its geographic
proximity and shared concerns over Chinese expansionism, make it a critical
partner for ASEAN. India’s Act East Policy has already strengthened its defence
ties with countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, and Singapore.
However, India’s increasing
willingness to assert its military strength beyond its borders exemplified by
Operation Sindoor, a demonstration of its military superiority over Pakistan signals
a broader shift in New Delhi’s strategic posture.
While this operation primarily
reflects India’s security calculus in South Asia, its implications for the
wider Indo-Pacific are significant.
India’s assertiveness sends a
message that it is willing to project power in defence of its interests,
including in maritime and strategic domains that overlap with ASEAN concerns.
This posture, while potentially beneficial in counterbalancing China, also
raises questions about regional stability.
For ASEAN, the key challenge is
to engage India as a partner in upholding the rules-based order, without
enabling unilateral military behaviour that could destabilize the region.
Proactive engagement with India
through structured defence dialogues, joint exercises, and multilateral
coordination will be essential to ensure that its influence supports, rather
than undermines, ASEAN’s security objectives.
Internally, ASEAN encounters
significant constraints that diminish its collective ability to address these
emerging threats. The consensus-based framework of the bloc, although essential
for its unity, has evolved into an obstacle for prompt and decisive action.
This has been particularly
apparent in its varied responses, notably its failure to establish a unified
position regarding the South China Sea. Certain member states hesitate to
confront China, influenced by economic ties or ideological affiliations, resulting
in divisions that weaken ASEAN’s standing as a unified security entity.
To strengthen its role in
regional security, ASEAN must consider key structural and diplomatic reforms.
First, the bloc should adopt a
more flexible approach that allows smaller coalitions of willing states to act
on critical issues like maritime security and defence cooperation, without
waiting for full consensus. Such an approach would enable more agile responses
while preserving the broader unity of the bloc.
Second, ASEAN must take a more
assertive role in shaping the regional security agenda. Institutions like the
ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and the East Asia Summit (EAS) offer important
platforms, but they are increasingly sidelined by micro-lateral groupings like
the QUAD and AUKUS. To remain relevant, ASEAN must evolve from a passive
convenor of dialogue into an agenda-setter that can proactively address
emerging security threats and push for compliance with international norms.
Third, member states must enhance
their own defence capabilities and invest in regional interoperability. While
collective defence is not on ASEAN’s agenda, greater security coordination,
information sharing, and joint maritime exercises can improve deterrence
against external coercion. Sovereignty can no longer be protected through
diplomacy alone ASEAN states must be prepared to defend their rights through
credible security postures.
Lastly, ASEAN should strengthen
its strategic partnerships with countries that respect its centrality but
operate outside the US-China rivalry. Japan, South Korea, France, and the
European Union offer opportunities for defence cooperation, capacity building,
and diplomatic alignment without forcing ASEAN into binary strategic choices.
Partner diversification will enhance ASEAN’s flexibility and help buffer
against external pressure.
In a nutshell, the Indo-Pacific’s
strategic turbulence presents an existential challenge to ASEAN. As regional
fault lines deepen and power competition intensifies, ASEAN can no longer rely
solely on consensus and neutrality to safeguard its members’ sovereignty and autonomy.
The bloc must adapt through
internal reform, strategic diversification, and enhanced security coordination to
assert its relevance and preserve regional stability.
The time for passive diplomacy is
over; ASEAN must now act with clarity, courage, and strategic foresight if it
is to remain a credible force in the Indo-Pacific.
Kuala Lumpur.
27.05.2025
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